Bitcoin Price as a Global Capitalization

What might Bitcoin finally cap out at? When it stabilizes as a world currency, what is our price range?

There are hodlers all over the world, millions of people hodling millions of BTC. But eventually, this currency will be used as exactly that - a currency that can be spent. All over you hear "BTC moon", "lambo", and "when moon?" Will Bitcoin be worth 50k? 500k? John McAfee's infamous 1 Million? (prices in USD). No one knows for sure, but here's some global logic I've gathered from several interviews with the experts.
(Before I begin, I am not a financial advisor, this is not financial advice, read my disclaimer here

This idea comes primarily from interviews with Ronnie Moas, one of the top Wall Street investors with a history of time-stamped, accurate predictions. We already know that money/value is flowing from other investments into Bitcoin - these come from stocks, bonds, gold, silver, and more. Here is where the fun begins!
Data pulled from Visual Capitalist's report on the world's money and markets published in October 2017, the market caps we're looking at are as follows:

• Silver - 17 Billion
• Notes and Coins - 7.6 Trillion
• Gold - 7.7 Trillion
• Stocks - 73 Trillion
• Total Value of the World's Money - 90.4 Trillion

As you can see, much of the world's money is in stocks (over 80% of it). As of the publish date, cryptocurrency had a market cap of 173 Billion. Those who have followed know that it reached a high of about 828 Billion and now rests easy at 335 Billion (mid April, 2018). Yes, the current cryptocurrency market cap is over 1,970% the market cap of silver. Take a moment for that to sink in - if we traded all the money in cryptocurrency for silver, we could buy the Earth's supply of ~1 Billion oz (31,250 tons) of silver over 19 times.

But it gets better.

The crypto cap equates to around 4.3% the value of gold, 0.45% of stocks, and 0.37% of the world's total value. It seems small, but if you take a minute to think that just in the last 7 years, the birth of Bitcoin and alt coins have taken over 37 out of every 10,000 shares of the entire world's market cap and continues to grow every day. The aforementioned Mr. Moas suggested a conservative 2% of the market cap when cryptocurrency has fully flowered and gained mass adoption, but not much else. So I did some math.

Every Dollar, Euro, Yuan, and Yen you and everybody in the world has ever used comes to around 8.4% of the global market cap, so 2% does seem easily achievable (keep in mind this is 2% of the global market cap which is primarily stocks, not 2% directly from note's and coin's 8.4%). Rounding Visual Capitalist's number down for error, our 2% would give us a crypto market cap of 1.8 Trillion dollars if the market was fluid and had no HODLers creating scarcity. So what does that mean for the price of a Bitcoin? Since the liftoff of alt coins beginning with Ethereum in the summer of 2017, BTC has held a market dominance anywhere between 65% and 18% but healthy markets seem to keep around 40-48%. Using 40% to again be conservative, that would give BTC a total market cap of 720 Billion dollars. Right now there are almost 17 million BTC circulating, but in 2020 we should have ~18.3 million, which puts our final, lowest possibility for 1 Bitcoin at $ 39,344 + HODLer scarcity.

Fun number, right? Want to make it more fun? Fortune.com reported on a study by Chainalysis that reports between 2.78 and 3.79 Million Bitcoins have been lost. Let's take a once-more-conservative approach and say on the lower end, 3 Million Bitcoins have lost their private keys, bringing the number in circulation today to around 14 Million Bitcoins and ~15.3 in 2020. If no more are lost between now and the middle of 2020(haha), that would bring our value to $ 47,059 each Bitcoin.
Now we can take a minute to breathe.

Because math is fun, we could adjust some numbers to be less conservative. Keep in mind that it's much easier to get carried away when you're headed "to the moon". But for kicks and giggles, let's say that Cryptocurrency takes over 5% of the global capitalization (remember stocks alone have over 80% of the global capitalization), BTC has a healthy 45% dominance, Chainalysis uses the headline number, and we have the mid-2020 amount of coins mined. I wrote it out into an equation:
   (global capitalization * % held by crypto * BTC dominance) / (coins circulating - lost coins) = Value for 1 BTC

So plugging our numbers in, we get:
   ( 90.4 Trillion * .05 * .45 ) / ( 18.3 Million - 3.79 Million) = $ 140,179 for 1 Bitcoin.